Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9893 (N20W67)
produced an M1/1f flare at 14/0351 UTC. Sunspots in this area, along
with Region 9901 (N22W56), remain moderately large and complex.
Several other C-class subflares also occurred here, including a
C9/Sf with associated Type II radio sweep at 14/0739 UTC. Region
9906 (S15W02) is also an area of note, continuing to grow and
develop, and producing C-class subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Regions 9906 and the
9893/9901 complex. A major flare is also possible in these regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The 13
April Fredericksburg A-index reported in Part (V) is estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 210 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 210/205/205 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 015/012-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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