Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9893 (N20W67) produced an M1/1f flare at 14/0351 UTC. Sunspots in this area, along with Region 9901 (N22W56), remain moderately large and complex. Several other C-class subflares also occurred here, including a C9/Sf with associated Type II radio sweep at 14/0739 UTC. Region 9906 (S15W02) is also an area of note, continuing to grow and develop, and producing C-class subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class activity is expected in Regions 9906 and the 9893/9901 complex. A major flare is also possible in these regions.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The 13 April Fredericksburg A-index reported in Part (V) is estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Apr 210
  Predicted    15 Apr-17 Apr  210/205/205
  90 Day Mean        14 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  014/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  015/012-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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