Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 April 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was a low levels. The largest event was a C3.6/Sf from Region 9900 (S29W68). Region 9906 (S15E13) has shown rapid growth with an area of 470 millionths, 38 spots, and beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spot. Region 9893 (N18W53) and Region 9901 (N20W39) have maintained there beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and have shown some increase in area. Region 9907 (S04E46) has increased in area and spot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9906 has the potential for producing M-class events and a small chance of a major event. Region 9893/9901 complex has M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A 24 nT sudden impulse was observed on the boulder magnetometer at 12/2243 UTC. The sudden impulse is likely the result of a weak CME shock passage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. We are still expecting some CME effects on day one of the forecast period and possibly early on day two. A small coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic field in unsettled conditions on day three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
Class M70%65%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Apr 226
  Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  225/220/220
  90 Day Mean        13 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  014/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Apr  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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