Viewing archive of Friday, 12 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9901 (N21W26) produced an M4/1F flare on 12/1802 UTC with an associated Type IV Radio Sweep. Region 9893 (N20W39) has developed a delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spot and has increased in area and spot count. LASCO/EIT imagery indicates that Region 9893 is the most likely source of an optically uncorrelated M1.4 flare that occurred on 12/1310 UTC. Region 9906 (S16E26) has shown rapid growth in spot count, area, and now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. This region also shows some indication of a developing delta magnetic configuration. As Region 9907 (S05E61) rotates onto the disk it has revealed a moderate size spot group and a beta-gamma magnetic classification. One new region was numbered today: Region 9908 (N05W25).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9893/9901 complex has been active and has two delta configurations. The potential for M-class events is good. Region 9906 and 9907 are developing and have a slight chance of M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one 3 hour period of minor storm conditions. This isolated minor storm condition coincided with a sector boundary crossing. At the time of this issue the NASA/ACE EPAM data have shown a steady increase in low energy protons possibly due to expected CME shock.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. A CME shock is expected midday on day one of the forecast period. A second shock expected midday on day two of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
Class M 65%65%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Apr 212
  Predicted    13 Apr-15 Apr  210/210/205
  90 Day Mean        12 Apr 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  014/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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