Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 April 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9899 (N18E33) produced an M2/2b flare at 09/0042 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 552 km/s. The CME activity associated with this event did not appear to be earth-directed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. This region continues to show slow growth in magnetic complexity, evidenced by the addition of satellite spots and penumbral development. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 09/1302 UTC that went optically uncorrelated. Region 9893 (N19W00) was again, quiescent today, showing no significant activity or appreciable changes from yesterday. However, the delta magnetic spot in this region remains intact. Region 9887 (N04W82) didn't produce any optically correlated flare activity today although an eruptive prominence on the leading edge of region occurred at 09/0720 UTC. This region appears to be in decay as it exits the disk. New region 9904 (S16W07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux remains slightly elevated, although well below event threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly at quiet levels through the forecast period. A slight chance of isolated active periods exists late on day three of the forecast period, due to the possibility of some flanking shock effects from the CME mentioned in IA.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 205
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  200/195/185
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  002/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  004/005-004/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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