Viewing archive of Friday, 5 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Several weak C-class flares occurred throughout the period, from sources including most of the larger active regions on the visible disk. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 04/2306 UTC, from a source near newly numbered Region 9895 (N06E58). Two other regions were numbered today, 9894 (N14W09), and 9896 (S11E74). Newly numbered Region 9896 appears to be the return of old Region 9866, which was a source of several energetic flares on its last transit. It now appears as a large, single polarity spot (possibly the leading spot of a large bipolar group), though lacks any evident bright plage area as would be expected for an energetic region. It's present position near the east limb prevents detailed analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate, though a chance for an isolated major flare exists, particularly for the emergent regions near the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period observed at higher latitudes during 05/1800-2100 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at geosynchronous orbit was again at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A chance for isolated active periods exists for days two and three of the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above event threshold for most of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 217
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  215/210/205
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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