Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the past day was an M1/1F at 31/1055 UTC in Region 9885 (N10E14). This area remains the largest sunspot group on the disk but appears to be simplifying. Regions 9886 (N11E30) and 9887 (N01E37) also generated small flares. New Region 9889 (S20E48) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9885 may produce another M-class flare as it decays further. A low-level M-flare is also possible in Region 9887.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The field remains under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to active levels for the next 24-48 hours. Activity should return to quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of the forecast period as the coronal hole influence diminishes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M60%50%40%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 204
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  018/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  016/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  018/015-018/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%30%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%40%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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