Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9885 (N11E27) produced the largest flare of the day, an M3/1n at 30/1301 UTC. This is the largest, most complex area presently on the disk and also produced several C-class subflares throughout the day. Regions 9884 (S19E02) and 9887 (N01E51) also generated subflare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9885 is expected to produce additional M-class activity and may generate an isolated X-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 29/2140 UTC and was followed by a 31 nT Sudden Impulse at Boulder at 29/2237 UTC. This activity is presumed to be associated with the trans-equatorial coronal hole mentioned yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels for the duration of the 3-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M75%75%75%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 189
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  190/195/195
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  018/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  018/015-018/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%30%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%60%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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