Viewing archive of Friday, 29 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred, mostly in Region 9880 (N08W76). Region 9885 (N12E44) is
the largest sunspot group currently on the disk. It is growing in
sunspot area and number and is developing a delta magnetic
configuration in the central spot complex. New Region 9886 (N11E59)
is a small bipolar group just to the east of 9885. New Regions 9887
(N01E66) and 9888 (S11E70) were also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9885 seems to be the most likely candidate for
M-class activity. Region 9880 may also produce an M-flare before it
rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased activity levels are
expected by 01 April as an equatorial coronal hole moves into a
geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 181 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 005/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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