Viewing archive of Friday, 29 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares occurred, mostly in Region 9880 (N08W76). Region 9885 (N12E44) is the largest sunspot group currently on the disk. It is growing in sunspot area and number and is developing a delta magnetic configuration in the central spot complex. New Region 9886 (N11E59) is a small bipolar group just to the east of 9885. New Regions 9887 (N01E66) and 9888 (S11E70) were also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9885 seems to be the most likely candidate for M-class activity. Region 9880 may also produce an M-flare before it rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased activity levels are expected by 01 April as an equatorial coronal hole moves into a geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M50%50%50%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 181
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  004/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  005/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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