Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The period began with multiple low level C-class flares that went optically uncorrelated. Region 9880 (N09W63) may have been responsible for several of the minor C-class flares and underwent slight decay late in the period. The gamma portion of yesterday's magnetic classification is no longer evident. Region 9885 (N11E69) is believed responsible for the largest flare during the period, producing a C7 x-ray flare at 28/1800 UTC. This region has shown steady growth in penumbral coverage. Region 9878 (N09W26) was unimpressive this period and has been in steady decay, the delta spot observed yesterday has become two distinct separate spots. Although less magnetically complex, this region retains a gamma magnetic signature. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9880 and 9885 are magnetically complex enough to produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity levels were at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field levels are expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M45%45%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 176
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 206
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  005/008-006/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%

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