Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9880 (N08W50) produced
the largest event of the period - a C3 flare at 27/1302Z. This
Beta-Gamma region increased in size and complexity with considerable
new flux emergence in the past 24 hours. Region 9878 (N10W13)
produced minor C-class flares and maintains a Delta configuration in
its trailing sunspots. New Regions 9884 (S18E38) and 9885 (N11E69)
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9878 and 9880 have potential to produce an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated, high
latitude active conditions early in the period. The coronal hole,
high speed stream which began early yesterday has gradually
decreased.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 169 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 008/008-005/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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