Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C3/Sf from 9878 (N08E01). This region continues to slowly develop in size and complexity. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Region 9881 (S03W62). A strong CME observed off the west limb at around 26/1400Z, appears to have originated from behind the SW limb. Remaining regions on the visible disk were stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9878 has potential to produce isolated M-class flares. Occasional C-class flares are expected from Region 9881.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet early in the period, but became unsettled following the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream at around 26/0100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at high latitudes. This weak, coronal hole related disturbance should begin to subside by day two.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Mar 166
  Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        26 Mar 208
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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