Viewing archive of Monday, 25 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9878 (N08E15) produced
the two largest events of the period - a C6/Sf at 25/1039Z and a C9
flare at 25/2008Z. No significant changes were noted in this
moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. Regions 9880 (N08W22) and
9881 (S03W48) have shown some growth this period, but remain
relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9878 has the potential to produce isolated
M-class flares. Expect minor C-class flares from Regions 9876
(S15E05), 9880, and 9881.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The period began in a
disturbed state in the waning stages of yesterday's major
geomagnetic storm. Another interplanetary shock was observed at ACE
at 25/0058Z. The field remained quiet to unsettled following this
shock as Bz remained northward for the duration of this weak
transient passage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 170 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 209
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 029/047 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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