Viewing archive of Friday, 22 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region 9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 22/2020 UTC in the wake of today's long-duration M1 flare. The event was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on 25 March in response to today's CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 March.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton99%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 172
  Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 212
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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