Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long-duration C4 flare began at 1544 UTC and lasted until 1919 UTC. The corresponding source on the disk was not entirely certain but it seemed most likely to be correlated to activity observed in Region 9866 (S08W73). Additional C-class subflares occurred during the day, with many of these coming from Region 9875. Region 9875 showed steady growth during the past 24 hours. Three new region were assigned today: 9876 (S16E65), 9877 (N18W29), and 9878 (N08E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until 1329 UTC when a sudden impulse (SI) occurred. Since then the geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active levels. The SI was caused by an interplanetary shock which was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 1307 UTC. The disturbance is most likely the result of the halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 at 18/0254 UTC. The shock also pushed the greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes up to about 19 PFU at 1525 UTC. The proton event fluxes dropped below event level at 1820 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. There is a chance for some isolated active levels on the second day as a possible response to yesterday's partial halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 188
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 213
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  010/010-015/015-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

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