Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S10W59) produced a long duration M1/1f flare at 19/1144 UTC. Two partial halo CMEs in rapid succession occurred along with this event, with an estimated plane of sky speed for the combined ejecta in the range of 700-750 km/s. Region 9866 has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9874 (N18E21) and Region 9875 (S18E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9866 and Region 9871 have the potential for M-class events. There is a slight possibility for an isolated X-class or proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels Minor storm levels were observed early in the day, due to a three hour period of sustained southward Bz during 0200-0500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress, with a maximum flux of 53 pfu observed at 19/0650 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Active conditions are expected on day one from effects of the CME on 18 March. Activity is expected to subside during day two. By day three, effects from the CME activity discussed in section 1A above are expected to result in predominantly active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Mar 175
  Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        19 Mar 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Mar  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  020/020-012/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm15%10%15%

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