Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S09W19)
produced an M2/1F flare at 15/2310 UTC. The event had an associated
tenflare (190 sfu), type IV radio sweep, and an enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 is the most likely candidate for M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become active by 18 March due to the flare/CME mentioned
in Part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 185 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/008-020/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 11% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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