Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S09W19) produced an M2/1F flare at 15/2310 UTC. The event had an associated tenflare (190 sfu), type IV radio sweep, and an enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9866 is the most likely candidate for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to become active by 18 March due to the flare/CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M 60%50%50%
Class X 10%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 185
  Predicted    17 Mar-19 Mar  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  005/008-020/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%11%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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