Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a C5/1f at 12/0837 UTC from Region 9866 (S10E35). Region 9866
is the most active region and continues its gradual growth with a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the larger trailing spot.
A long duration C3.0 peaked at 12/0109 UTC with an overall duration
of 5 hours 16 minutes. A full halo CME and Type IV radio sweep were
associated with this event. The source of the CME is unclear.
Activity in Region 9866 at that time suggest a possible source as
does activity beyond the southeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 continues to grow and has the potential
for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic fields is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one and two of the forecast
period. On day three, there is a chance of active conditions due to
the CME early on 12 March.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 178 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 008/010-008/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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