Viewing archive of Monday, 11 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. A long duration M2 flare occurred at 10/2325 UTC just beyond the east limb (S20). A fast impressive non earth directed CME was associated with this event. Region 9866 (S08E47) continued to grow, although now at a gradual rate, and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Other activity consisted of two minor C-class flares. Four new Regions were numbered today: Region 9867 (S29E16), Region 9868 (N19E32), Region 9869 (N24E42) and Region 9870 (S17E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9866 has the potential for M-class and major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a slight chance of isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M 45%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 182
  Predicted    12 Mar-14 Mar  185/190/190
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  008/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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