Viewing archive of Monday, 11 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. A long duration
M2 flare occurred at 10/2325 UTC just beyond the east limb (S20). A
fast impressive non earth directed CME was associated with this
event. Region 9866 (S08E47) continued to grow, although now at a
gradual rate, and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Other activity consisted of two minor C-class
flares. Four new Regions were numbered today: Region 9867
(S29E16), Region 9868 (N19E32), Region 9869 (N24E42) and Region 9870
(S17E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 has the potential for M-class and major
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a slight
chance of isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 182 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 185/190/190 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 008/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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