Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of a long-duration M2/1f flare from Region 9866 (S10E73) at 09/1856 UTC. This region has rotated into better view and now appears as a large and moderately complex bipolar group (in an Eko beta-gamma configuration, with 560 millionths areal coverage in white light). No reports of radio sweeps or SOHO/LASCO imagery, inferring potential CME characteristics, were received prior to the end of the period. Today's 10.7cm noon flux reading of 208sfu was likely enhanced due to the flare activity, so the morning reading of 184sfu has been substituted for the daily value. Other activity included minor C-class flares from Region 9864 (N19E43). No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9866 is a likely source of additional, isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The moderate enhancement of >2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit during the past two days appeared to wane somewhat today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A slight chance for isolated active periods may exist for day three of the forecast period, due to possible shock passage effects from today's M2 long -duration flare event.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M35%35%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 184
  Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  005/006-005/006-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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