Viewing archive of Friday, 8 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the period was an optically uncorrelated C8 x-ray flare that
occurred at 08/1456 UTC. There were many minor C-class flares
during the period with two of them being attributed to Region 9859
(S10W05). This region is unimpressive but did show steady minor
growth of umbral coverage today. Very little recorded radio
activity today. New Regions 9865 (N14E72), and 9866 (S10E80) were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated minor M-class
flare occurring from Region 9859.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained elevated throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated
unsettled conditions through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 177 Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 08 Mar 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 006/006-006/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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