Viewing archive of Friday, 8 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was an optically uncorrelated C8 x-ray flare that occurred at 08/1456 UTC. There were many minor C-class flares during the period with two of them being attributed to Region 9859 (S10W05). This region is unimpressive but did show steady minor growth of umbral coverage today. Very little recorded radio activity today. New Regions 9865 (N14E72), and 9866 (S10E80) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated minor M-class flare occurring from Region 9859.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained elevated throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 177
  Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  006/006-006/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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