Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare (optically uncorrelated) was the extent of the observed flare activity for the period. Several minor discrete radio bursts and multiple Type III radio sweeps comprised most of the rest of the day's activity. At the beginning of the period, a 14 degree disappearing filament was seen near S43W25 which made up the rest of the activity for today. Region 9845 (N17W74) remains quiescent and showed continued gradual decay, although this region continues to show moderate complexity. New Regions 9862 (N06W58), and 9863 (N18W37) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9845 continues to exhibit a slight possibility of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High speed stream effects of a large, transequatorial, coronal hole continues.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels through most of day one due to continued coronal hole effects. The remainder of the forecast period should see a return to quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M25%25%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 178
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  185/185/190
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  012/015-012/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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