Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare
(optically uncorrelated) was the extent of the observed flare
activity for the period. Several minor discrete radio bursts and
multiple Type III radio sweeps comprised most of the rest of the
day's activity. At the beginning of the period, a 14 degree
disappearing filament was seen near S43W25 which made up the rest of
the activity for today. Region 9845 (N17W74) remains quiescent and
showed continued gradual decay, although this region continues to
show moderate complexity. New Regions 9862 (N06W58), and 9863
(N18W37) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9845 continues to exhibit a slight possibility
of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High
speed stream effects of a large, transequatorial, coronal hole
continues.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active levels through most of day one
due to continued coronal hole effects. The remainder of the
forecast period should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 178 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 012/015-012/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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