Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A B9 flare
(optically uncorrelated) occurred at 05/0534 UTC, this was the only
recorded flare of the period. Several Type III radio sweeps
comprised the rest of the activity seen during the period. Region
9845 (N17W60) saw a decrease in spot count but remained unchanged in
areal coverage. Region 9851 (S06E02) has shown some growth in spot
coverage and magnetic complexity late in the period. New Regions
9860 (S06E61) and 9861 (N07E66) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9845 continues to be complex enough to possibly
produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High
speed stream effects of a large, recurrent coronal hole remains
geoeffective.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active conditions through day one of
the forecast period. Due to coronal hole effects, minor storm
conditions may be possible at higher latitudes through day one as
well. Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 172 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 017/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 020/030-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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