Viewing archive of Monday, 4 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9845
(N17W46) was the source of a few impulsive, weak C-class events.
This region retains its moderate size and magnetic complexity, but
has been relatively stable and has yet to produce any significant
flare activity. Three new regions were numbered today: 9857
(S04W58), 9858 (S30E05), and 9859 (S10E47).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at predominantly low levels. Region 9845 remains a possible source
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The onset of high speed
stream effects from a large, recurrent coronal hole was apparent
over the course of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active due to coronal hole effects for
the next 36-48 hours. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible
at higher latitudes. By day three of the forecast period, quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 175 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 170/165/175 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 020/020-020/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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