Viewing archive of Friday, 1 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Several C-class events occurred, the largest being a C9.7 flare at 01/0012 UTC. No corresponding optical flare report was received for this event, but SOHO/EIT imagery suggests that Region 9845 (N17W04) was the source. Two type-II radio sweep events occurred during the period. The first was at 01/0214 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 1200 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery revealed a fast CME from a source behind the southwest limb at this time, though not appearing earth-directed. The second sweep had an estimated velocity of 742 km/s and occurred at 01/0542 UTC, shortly after an impulsive C7/Sf from Region 9848 (S20W21) at 01/0531 UTC. However, no CME activity was evident in LASCO imagery following this event. Two new regions were numbered today: 9851 (S07E56), and 9852 (N16E66).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a possible source for isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. A sustained period of southward IMF, following a weak interplanetary shock passage early on 28 February, caused active and isolated minor storm conditions at higher latitudes during 28/2100 - 01/0300 UTC. Activity has been predominantly quiet since then.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until the onset of high speed stream effects from a recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the forecast period. Isolated active conditions are anticipated thereafter.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Mar 188
  Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        01 Mar 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  005/006-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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