Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/Sf at 23/0630Z from developing Region 9841 (S20W33). Region
9830 (S19W49) continues to be the largest and the most active region on
the visible disk, and produced several minor C-class flares. This
region has been in slow decay over the past few days; however, new
flux emergence was noted today and a weak delta configuration still
exists. Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 9839
(S18W20). New Regions 9844 (N22E33), and 9845 (N15E71) were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 is capable of producing isolated M-class
flares with the slight chance of a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods early in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. The minor
geomagnetic disturbance expected today following the 20 Feb CME, has
not yet materialized. It is unlikely that we will see any impact
from this CME.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 188 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 190/185/185 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 010/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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