Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9825 (N16W81) produced an impulsive M5/1n flare at 20/0612 UT associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Region 9825 also produced an impulsive M4 flare at 20/0251 UT associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps and an impulsive M4 at 20/0959 UT. This activity appeared to coincide with the rapid emergence of opposite-polarity flux northwest of the leader spots, but detailed analysis was hampered by its proximity to the west limb. Region 9830 (S16W06) remained the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group on the disk as multiple magnetic delta configurations persisted within its leader spots. It produced an impulsive C9/1n flare at 20/1626 UT associated with minor discrete radio emission. New Region 9835 (S08W61) produced an impulsive M3/Sf flare at 20/1711 UT. New Regions 9836 (S02W26) and 9837 (N07E70) were also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. There is a chance for isolated major flare activity from Region 9825 (which will cross the west limb on 21 February) and Region 9830.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 20/0730 UT, reached a maximum of 13.5 PFU at 20/0755 UT, and ended at 20/0800 UT. This proton event was likely associated with the M5/1n flare at 20/0612 UT from Region 9825.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 21- 22 February. Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels on 23 February due to an expected CME passage associated with today's M5/1n flare. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M 75%70%70%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 193
  Predicted    21 Feb-23 Feb  200/205/205
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  010/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  007/008-012/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%40%
Minor storm 05%10%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%40%
Minor storm 10%15%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%10%

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