Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as
well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually
develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the
region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where
multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the
past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class
flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a
slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 189 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 195/200/205 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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