Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low, with only a few, low-level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region 9825 (N13W24)
continues to decay and simplify. Region 9830 (S20E44) showed
moderate growth during the past 24 hours and exhibited occasional
brightenings and plage fluctuations. New Region 9831 (S11W41)
emerged on the disk today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class event, either
from Region 9825, or possibly from Region 9830 if it continues to
emerge.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods over
the next two days as a possible response to the partial halo CME
from the southwest part of the disk on 14 February. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 194 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 015/012-015/012-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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