Viewing archive of Friday, 15 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few, low-level C-class
subflares occurred during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from
Region 9825 (N14W13), which is currently largest sunspot group on
the disk. Region 9825 is showing signs of decay and simplification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is still a chance, however, for an isolated
M-class event from Region 9825.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled tomorrow as there is a
possibility for short-lived effects from a favorably positioned, but
small coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with occasional active
periods are expected on the 2nd and 3rd days as a response to
yesterday's partial halo CME from the southeast part of the solar
disk.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 195 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 190/185/185 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-015/012-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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