Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's flare activity
consisted of a few C-class flares. The largest was a C4/1f at 0142
UTC. Most of today's flare activity was produced by 9825 (N13E01).
9825 is currently the largest, most complex region on the disk and
continued to grow slowly. Region 9821 (S12W66) continues to decay.
Two new regions rotated into view: 9829 (S07E74), a small C-type
group, and 9830 (S22E73), a small H-type group. Numerous CMEs were
observed in LASCO imagery today. Of these, a CME that was first seen
in C2 at 14/0254 UTC was associated with disk activity in EIT in the
southwest quadrant, and appears to have at least some earthward
component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
9825. There is a very slight chance for a major flare from 9825.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled is possible on day two due to coronal hole
effects. Day three is expected to be unsettled to slightly active
due to possible geoeffectiveness from today's CME that originated
from the southwest part of the solar disk.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 196 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 195/190/190 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 007/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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