Viewing archive of Monday, 11 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only low level C-class events observed during the period from Region 9821 (S13W25), 9822 (N18E26), and 9825 (N12E43). Two new regions were numbered today as Region's 9827 (S25W43) and 9828 (S15E50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 9821 and 9825.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible for 13 February with the influence of a high speed stream. The greater than 2 Mev electrons are expected to be enhanced to moderate levels through 13 February.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 202
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  205/210/215
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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