Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9811 (S26W20) produced an M1/2f event at 10/1848 UTC. Region 9825 (N12E57) produced a C5/1f long duration event at 10/1928 UTC. Region 9821 (S14W11) continues to show growth in both area and spot count and is currently an Esi beta-gamma group with approximately 33 spots. A new region was numbered today as Region 9826 (S23E39).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9811, 9821, and 9825 are capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit are expected to be enhanced to moderate levels through 11 February and returning to background levels around 12 February.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 217
  Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  220/225/225
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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