Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares were
observed during the period with the largest a C2/Sf from Region 9821
(S14E03) at 09/0817 UTC. This region has shown significant growth
since yesterday in both area and spot count. Three new regions were
numbered today as Region's 9823 (S05E24), 9824 (N21E67), and 9825
(N12E69).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance of increased activity with the addition of the new
regions numbered today in the northeast.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today
with a peak flux of 1130 pfu at 09/1530 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons
at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain enhanced at moderate
to high levels for the next two to three days.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 199 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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