Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares were observed during the period with the largest a C2/Sf from Region 9821 (S14E03) at 09/0817 UTC. This region has shown significant growth since yesterday in both area and spot count. Three new regions were numbered today as Region's 9823 (S05E24), 9824 (N21E67), and 9825 (N12E69).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance of increased activity with the addition of the new regions numbered today in the northeast.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today with a peak flux of 1130 pfu at 09/1530 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain enhanced at moderate to high levels for the next two to three days.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 199
  Predicted    10 Feb-12 Feb  205/205/200
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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