Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9815 (N12E17) produced a C4 flare at 07/1337 UTC with associated discrete radio bursts at the lower frequencies. Minor C-Class flares represent the only other activity on the disc. Region 9802 (S14W80) has decayed to a small beta group as it rotates beyond the west limb. One new region was numbered today: Region 9820 (N15E46).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with the a chance of an isolated M-class event from region 9802 as it rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active on day one of the forecast period. Day two and three are expected to be quiet to unsettled as the effects of the coronal hole diminish.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
Class M40%30%25%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Feb 192
  Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        07 Feb 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  013/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Feb  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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