Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9815 (N12E17) produced
a C4 flare at 07/1337 UTC with associated discrete radio bursts at
the lower frequencies. Minor C-Class flares represent the only
other activity on the disc. Region 9802 (S14W80) has decayed to a
small beta group as it rotates beyond the west limb. One new region
was numbered today: Region 9820 (N15E46).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with the a chance of an isolated M-class event from
region 9802 as it rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active on day one of the forecast period.
Day two and three are expected to be quiet to unsettled as the
effects of the coronal hole diminish.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 192 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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