Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9802 (S13W68) produced an M1.4 flare at 06/1132 UTC. Region 9816 (S11W58) produced a C8/Sf at 06/0445 UTC with an associated Type II Radio Sweep (457 km/s). Region 9802 has shown rapid decay in the last 24 hours and now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration with 310 millionths area, 17 spots and an extent of 13 degrees. Region 9816 also has entered a decay phase.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9802, while in a decay phase, still has the potential for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one 3 hour period of quiet conditions. A large coronal hole is centered at S10W40 and is producing the unsettled to active conditions. This coronal hole has an average solar wind speed of 625 km/s over the last 24 hours. Average Bz for the last 24 hours was a negative 0 - 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the first day of the forecast period. Day two and three are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the coronal hole rotates beyond a geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M55%50%40%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 203
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  205/200/195
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  015/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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