Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar Activity was at moderate levels. Region 9802 (S15W56) produced an M1.3/Sf flare at 04/2330 UTC. Region 9802 continues to show gradual decay but remains a magnetically complex Beta-gamma-delta region. Region 9816 (S12W46) growth continues but at a slower rate than yesterday. A large positive polarity coronal hole near central latitude is currently rotating into a geo-effective position. Solar wind speed has increased to 550 km/sec at the time of forecast issue. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9817 (S07E23), Region 9818 (N06E54), and Region 9819 (S29E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9802 and has the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one 3 hour period of quiet conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions is expected to return by day three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
Class M60%55%50%
Class X10%10%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Feb 221
  Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  225/225/220
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  015/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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