Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 February 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9800 (N10W44) produced the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf at 01/2120 UTC. This region continues to show slow decay while retaining it's beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 9802 (S14W18) produced two minor C-class flares during the period and has also shown some slight decay in penumbral coverage. However, the delta magnetic configuration within the dominate intermediate spot remains intact. Multiple Type III radio sweeps and a pair of radio bursts comprised the rest of the recorded activity for the period. New Regions 9811 (S27E83) and 9812 (N12W16) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9802 has the potential to produce M-class flare activity, possibly an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. An isolated period of minor storm conditions occurred at 02/0600 - 0900 UTC. This was preceded with a sudden impulse at the Boulder magnetometer of 45 nT at 02/0558 UTC. This transient is presumed to be related to M3 x-ray flare that occurred in old Region 9787 at 31/1444 UTC. The optical correlation for this flare was attained using SOHO/EIT imagery, as this region had rotated beyond the west limb.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active conditions through day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Feb 241
  Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  240/240/240
  90 Day Mean        02 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Feb  016/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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