Viewing archive of Friday, 1 February 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A small C-class flare from Region 9800 (N08W31) along with several minor radio sweeps and bursts comprised most all of today's activity. Region 9802 (S15W05) continues to show growth and development of spot complex, the delta magnetic structure has become more evident during the period. New Region 9810 (N10E81) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. USAF planetary experienced an isolated period of active conditions from 01/1500 - 1800 UTC. Shortly after 31/2100 UTC, a shock passage was observed at the ACE satellite. This was followed by a sudden impulse of 19 nT observed at Boulder at 01/2127 UTC. The source region for this weak shock is unknown.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Feb 246
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  245/245/245
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 225
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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