Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar Activity was at low levels. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated very impulsive C7 flare at 30/1639 UTC. Region 9802 (S17E22) has shown rapid growth within the last 24 hours. Spot count has nearly doubled to 41 and area has increase to 510 millionths. The large intermediate spot shows delta mixing, resulting in a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration for the region. Region 9800 (N08W03) has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic class but otherwise remains unchanged. One new region was numbered today: Region 9807 (S27E74).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to at low to moderate levels. Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the potential for isolated major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 256
  Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  255/250/245
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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