Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar Activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated very impulsive C7 flare at 30/1639
UTC. Region 9802 (S17E22) has shown rapid growth within the last
24 hours. Spot count has nearly doubled to 41 and area has increase
to 510 millionths. The large intermediate spot shows delta mixing,
resulting in a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration for the
region. Region 9800 (N08W03) has simplified to a beta-gamma
magnetic class but otherwise remains unchanged. One new region was
numbered today: Region 9807 (S27E74).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to at low
to moderate levels. Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the potential
for isolated major events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 256 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 255/250/245 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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