Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C9 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/2349 UTC and was optically uncorrelated. Region 9800 (N07E10) produced multiple C-class flares that comprised most all of the optically correlated activity during the period. This region now contains a delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead asymmetrical spot, group continues to show trending towards the growth phase. Region 9802 (S16E36), although activity quiescent, has also shown steady growth during the period and now yields a beta-gamma magnetic spot group classification. A 16 degree filament (DSF) disappeared from the southeast quadrant of the solar disk between 28/2352 - 29/1451 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9800 does have the potential to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jan 261
  Predicted    30 Jan-01 Feb  265/260/260
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  003/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 00%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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