Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the period was a C9 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/2349 UTC and was
optically uncorrelated. Region 9800 (N07E10) produced multiple
C-class flares that comprised most all of the optically correlated
activity during the period. This region now contains a delta
magnetic structure in the dominant lead asymmetrical spot, group
continues to show trending towards the growth phase. Region 9802
(S16E36), although activity quiescent, has also shown steady growth
during the period and now yields a beta-gamma magnetic spot group
classification. A 16 degree filament (DSF) disappeared from the
southeast quadrant of the solar disk between 28/2352 - 29/1451 UTC.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9800 does have the potential to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 261 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 265/260/260 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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