Viewing archive of Monday, 28 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9788 (N18W85) produced a C9/Sf at 28/0310 UTC. Region 9800 (N07E23) has increased in size and magnetic complexity to a Beta-gamma configuration with some mixing in the leader spot. Region 9802 (S16E49) has increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration and has grown in area size and spot count. A 25 degree disappearing filament (S29E18) occurred between 27/2116 and 28/1318 UTC. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9804 (S19E27), Region 9805 (N14E64), and Region 9806 (N11E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9800 and 9802 have the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than 10 MeV protons have returned to background levels after the enhancement of 27/1710 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 260
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  255/260/260
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  008/010-010/012-005/004
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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