Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. New Region 9802 (S13E72) produced an M1/Sf flare at 26/2005 UTC. This active region does not appear particularly large or complex. Region 9787 (S09W33) remains the largest group but has been relatively quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 240
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  240/245/250
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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