Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past day was a long-duration C7 at 24/0439 UTC. Images from the SOHO spacecraft suggest that the source of the event was from just behind the east limb. Other areas only produced a few small subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Regions 9787 (S06W06) or 9788 (N18W30).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 231
  Predicted    25 Jan-27 Jan  225/225/225
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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