Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9794 (N12E23) was the most active region during the period and produced the largest flare of the day. This region produced a C3/Sf at 23/1337 UTC and an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 562 km/s. A second Type II radio sweep occurred in this region following an optical Sf flare at 23/0339 UTC, estimated shock velocity of 384 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates neither of these radio sweeps will be geoeffective. This region also produced two other minor C-class flares early in the period. Regions 9783 (S11W65), 9787 (S07E06), and newly numbered Region 9799 (S25E54) also produced minor C-class flare activity during the period. Region 9788 (N17W14) did show some decay in the penumbral coverage since yesterday, although this region retains it's beta-gamma magnetic classification. New Regions 9795 (N23W60), 9796 (N09E18), 9797 (S16E32), and 9798 (S03E42) were also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9787 and 9788 magnetic structures possess the potential to produce M-class flares
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 227
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  230/225/225
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  006/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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