Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9791 (S02W46) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 22/0900 UTC. The sunspot group appears to have simplified somewhat since the flare occurred, reducing penumbral coverage to about half of what was observed yesterday. Region 9789 (N18W42) produced an impulsive C5/Sf flare at 22/1313 UTC and has also been in decay since flare occurrence. One event of note, an optically uncorrelated near long duration C1 flare occurred at 22/0758 UTC. This flare had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1017 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't indicate earth directed CME activity with any of today's events. Regions 9787 (S06E19) and 9788 (N18E00) have shown growth over the period as both regions have acquired gamma classification to their magnetic structures. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9787 and 9788 have the potential of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 229
  Predicted    23 Jan-25 Jan  235/235/235
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  006/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  006/008-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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