Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted of several minor C-class flares. The most significant was a C3/Sf flare from Region 9788 (N17E27), which occurred at 20/1552 UTC. Minor growth was observed in this region during the period, although it remains a simple bipolar complex. Little, if any, changes during the period were evident in Regions 9783 (S11W25), 9785 (N11W39), 9786 (S25W45), and 9787 (S07E46). Newly numbered Region 9791 (S03W19) shows some promise, evidenced by a rapidly growing spot complex. Regions 9792 (N07E23), 9793 (S15E32), and 9794 (N11E65) were also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels. Although, Regions 9785, 9786, 9887, and 9788 exhibit the potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. However, isolated active conditions may exist on day one of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
Class M 45%45%45%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jan 222
  Predicted    21 Jan-23 Jan  225/235/240
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  008/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 06%02%02%

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