Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Activity consisted
of several minor C-class flares. The most significant was a C3/Sf
flare from Region 9788 (N17E27), which occurred at 20/1552 UTC.
Minor growth was observed in this region during the period, although
it remains a simple bipolar complex. Little, if any, changes during
the period were evident in Regions 9783 (S11W25), 9785 (N11W39),
9786 (S25W45), and 9787 (S07E46). Newly numbered Region 9791
(S03W19) shows some promise, evidenced by a rapidly growing spot
complex. Regions 9792 (N07E23), 9793 (S15E32), and 9794 (N11E65)
were also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low levels. Although, Regions 9785, 9786, 9887, and
9788 exhibit the potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. However, isolated
active conditions may exist on day one of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 222 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 225/235/240 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 008/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 02% | 02% |
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