Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9775 (S06W99) produced isolated C-class subflares as it crossed the west limb. Region 9782 (N06W08) showed a minor increase in area, but produced no flares. It retained a moderate degree of magnetic complexity with mixed polarities evident in its leader spots. Region 9785 (N10E01) showed spot growth and a minor increase in magnetic complexity within its trailer portion, but produced no flares. New Region 9787 (S08E85) rotated into view during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9782 and 9785 appear capable of producing isolated low-level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jan 212
  Predicted    18 Jan-20 Jan  215/215/220
  90 Day Mean        17 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  007/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  008/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 10%10%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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