Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9775 (S06W86) produced an M1/Sf flare at 16/1013 UTC as well as occasional C-class subflares. No significant changes were observed in this region as it began to cross the west limb. Region 9773 (N16W93) produced an isolated C-class subflare as it crossed the west limb early in the period. Region 9782 (N06E05) showed a minor increase in area, but appeared to simplify due to the loss of a delta magnetic configuration in the southern portion of its leader spots. New Region 9786 (S26E07) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare will be possible from Region 9775 as it continues to rotate out of view. There will also be a chance for an M-class flare from Region 9782.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 15/1435 UTC ended at 16/1205 UTC. The maximum for this event was 15 PFU at 15/2000 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M70%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 216
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  215/220/220
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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