Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9775 (S06W69)
was most active, producing an M1/Sf event at 14/2246 UTC, and
several other subfaint C-class flares during the period. This
region is exhibiting some growth in magnetic complexity and areal
coverage as it approaches the west limb. Other sources of weak
C-class flare activity during the period included Regions 9782
(N06E20) and 9773 (N16W80).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Particle fluxes for both >2MeV
electrons and >10MeV protons reached event levels during the period.
>2MeV electrons briefly exceeded 1000 pfu at geosynchronous orbit
near local noon, as measured on GOES-8, during 15/1405-1615 UTC. A
proton event for >10MeV flux reached event threshold of 10 pfu at
15/1435 UTC, and remains in progress with a current flux of about 12
pfu. The slow enhancement in proton flux is likely from the west
limb CME event of 14 January, with the delay in enhancement due to
the intervening effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mainly quiet with some isolated unsettled periods.
The >10MeV proton event is expected to end during the first day of
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 90% | 30% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 218 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 220/215/220 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 007/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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