Viewing archive of Monday, 14 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC. M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region 9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC. The largest active region on the visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41) exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Isolated major flare activity is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. High speed stream effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period. Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Enhancements of particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result in above-threshold events during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%15%
Proton30%20%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 229
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  235/240/240
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  007/008-007/005-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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